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Brexit
Dec 8, 2017 18:04:02 GMT
Post by ignorantianescia on Dec 8, 2017 18:04:02 GMT
PM Theresa May has struck a last-minute deal with the EU in a bid to move Brexit talks on to the next phase.
There will be no "hard border" with Ireland; and the rights of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU will be protected.
The so-called "divorce bill" will amount to between £35bn and £39bn, Downing Street says.
The European Commission president said it was a "breakthrough" and he was confident EU leaders will approve it.www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42277040The payment for various outstanding expenses (crudely called "divorce bill" by the media) has turned out rather more than I thought, for I expected this to be around €30bn/mld. Otherwise it doesn't quite look like a "Soft Brexit", but it will be soft enough to bother the UKIPers. Meanwhile the UK is experiencing an economic slump as one of the more anaemic economies in the EU.
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Post by sandwiches on Dec 13, 2017 23:26:56 GMT
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Brexit
Dec 23, 2017 12:43:09 GMT
Post by ignorantianescia on Dec 23, 2017 12:43:09 GMT
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Post by ignorantianescia on Feb 2, 2018 18:20:18 GMT
A leaked assessment report from the DExEU (of all places) has confirmed the findings of earlier conditional forecasts on the costs of various Leave scenarios, having arrived at similar magnitudes for the scenarios. MPs will be shown the secret analysis predicting major economic harm from Brexit as a “matter of urgency”, after the Government caved in over the controversy.
The document – concluding all three mooted exit options would leave Britain poorer – will be shown to the select committee scrutinizing withdrawal and all other MPs will be able to view it in “a confidential reading room”.
John Bercow, the Commons Speaker, declined to set a strict deadline for release, while ordering ministers that the study must be “made available as a matter of urgency”.The following is written on the three scenarios: The leak said the new analysis predicted a no-deal Brexit, leaving Britain trading with Europe on World Trade Organisation terms, would reduce growth by 8 per cent over 15 years.
Leaving with a Canada-style free trade agreement would see growth cut by 5 per cent, while staying inside the single market would reduce growth by 2 per cent.
The document also warned that the gains from free trade deals with other big countries would fail to make up for the losses - a boost of just 0.2 per cent over 15 years from a deal with the US, for example.www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-secret-impact-assessments-government-theresa-may-david-davis-a8187796.htmlIn case you wonder, the reputed "bespoke" trade deal lies between the 2% GDP loss of the "Norwegian option" and the 5% GDP loss of the "Canadian option". There is no way it could end up being more profitable than remaining in the EEA.
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Brexit
Apr 7, 2018 10:34:43 GMT
Post by ignorantianescia on Apr 7, 2018 10:34:43 GMT
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Brexit
Apr 25, 2018 19:07:21 GMT
Post by ignorantianescia on Apr 25, 2018 19:07:21 GMT
Polling commissioned by a pro-European thinktank reveals that when confronted with several projected fiscal outcomes of various models for leaving the EU (EEA, Bespoke TM, FTA, WTO-Onlyism) most voters in general and most Leave voters prefer not to leave. Of course most Leave voters probably wouldn't accept those projections now, but it is interesting to keep one's eyes on public opinion on the expected costs and see if any shifts take place. ourglobalfuture.com/reports/too-high-a-price-the-cost-of-brexit-what-the-public-thinks/
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Brexit
Jul 24, 2018 9:03:52 GMT
Post by evangelion on Jul 24, 2018 9:03:52 GMT
What a train wreck.
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Brexit
Jul 30, 2018 23:42:02 GMT
Post by himself on Jul 30, 2018 23:42:02 GMT
Have any financial models anywhere successfully predicted what actually happened?
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Brexit
Aug 2, 2018 16:39:32 GMT
Post by ignorantianescia on Aug 2, 2018 16:39:32 GMT
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Brexit
Oct 11, 2018 18:23:10 GMT
Post by ignorantianescia on Oct 11, 2018 18:23:10 GMT
Here is an interesting blog recapping the effect of trade on British output since Brexit. The effect turns out to be quite erratic, without a consistent positive result despite the depreciation. There is still a huge disconnect between the reality of the state of the UK economy since the Brexit vote and media perceptions. I heard one presenter on BBC News say the economy is doing pretty well following the Brexit vote. The reality is very different. According to the latest CER study the economy is 2.5% smaller than it would have been without that vote, which is nearly £2000 per household. We are back in the situation we were in before the 2015 election, where the reality for most households was pretty bad but the media kept on talking about a strong economy.mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-post-brexit-vote-trade-boost-that.html
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